Notes from Underwater
By BowTiedLobster on Substack · Hundreds of subscribers · 1 free and 11 paid among the latest 12.
Psychology, Persuasion, and Markets.
Latest posts
Real Yields and TIPS Markets
It is a common line of reasoning to cite the real yield-inflation breakeven decomposition and conclude that the move in bonds in the U.S. lately is showing rising growth expectations and not pricing any inflation. Read more
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Weekly Expectations Summary (stocks, bonds, oil)
Check out the group chat for more detail here. Link below. Read more
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Update on Trump, Russia, Ukraine March 24 Incredible Prediction (Stocks, Bonds, Oil)
I find myself frequently sharing this incredible prediction from March 24 (paywall has been removed on the paid article) lately so I thought it would be a good time to revisit the dynamic. Obviously much has happened since March…
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You Stand Up for Yourself
(I have multiple completed drafts from many months ago when this newsletter was figuring out its niche. My most recent article on austerity and inflation is unusually long so I’m taking the opportunity this week to share this…
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Solving the Debt: Austerity or Inflation? (stocks, bonds, gold)
The origin of this article is a subscriber question about a throwaway Trump comment about paying off the debt recently (October 2). It’s a good question. People generally say what they mean; what they are actually thinking. 1 Not…
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Revisiting Trump and Putin’s Friendship
Trump has revoked more energy sanctions on Russia with the excuse of the ongoing diesel crisis. “Never let a crisis go to waste,” as they say. This is something I mentioned in March: how the geopolitical progressions would likely…
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October 2026 Asset Summary
I’m going to start doing a monthly asset summary (thanks to for the excellent suggestion). This will be nice because: My articles are generally concept-focused and finding my overall market views by reading through all my notes…
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Kpler’s Numbers are Right (Oil, Bonds, Stocks)
There aren’t major investment implications from this update but I’ve gotten asked about this by paid subs and it appears other friends of Notes From Underwater are boosting the claim so I thought it would be worth sending a short…
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