Oil Market Update (Bonds, Equities)
A reminder that a real-time reaction to daily events can be found in the Notes From Underwater group chat. Read more
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Notes from Underwater
By BowTiedLobster on Substack · Hundreds of subscribers · 12 free and 0 paid among the latest 12.
Psychology, Persuasion, and Markets.
Latest posts
The Midterms Don’t Matter
This post is in large part an invitation for others to point out portions of the electoral and legislative process I do not currently appreciate. I don’t think the midterms matter at all. This is a function both of how far they…
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Bond Market Participation from Treasury and Fed (Pt. 3) (bonds, gold, bitcoin)
In the final post of the series I elaborate on possible reasons why Bessent wants to use a Treasury buyback policy which removes duration bond supply from the market, which explanation I find most compelling, and investment…
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Iran War Stall Strategy
I was reminded of this excellent podcast in conversation today and thought it worth “bumping” to my readers as it has become timeless and the ideas herein make it much easier to process the developments in the war. The war has…
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Bond Market Participation from Treasury and Fed (Pt. 2) (bonds, gold, bitcoin)
Last time I did a general overview of the net impact of Bessent’s Treasury buyback program and some misconceptions. You Have Ample Supply I also outlined one of the commonly-held opinions about “duration supply reduction” actions…
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Lake Ontario
Short further explanation. The relevant article is re-linked at the end. Read more
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Bond Market Participation from Treasury and Fed (Pt. 1) (bonds, gold, bitcoin)
Bessent’s Treasury buyback program has created a lot of discussion, much of it characterized by high confidence despite a low level of understanding of what it actually represents. I thought it would be a good opportunity for a…
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